A bogus technological prediction or a foredoomed engineering concept,
esp. one that fails by implicitly assuming that technologies develop
linearly, incrementally, and in isolation from one another when in
fact the learning curve tends to be highly nonlinear, revolutions are
common, and competition is the rule. The prototype was Vannevar
Bush's prediction of `electronic brains' the size of the Empire State
Building with a Niagara-Falls-equivalent cooling system for their
tubes and relays, a prediction made at a time when the semiconductor
effect had already been demonstrated. Other famous vannevars have
included magnetic-bubble memory, LISP machines, {videotex}, and a
paper from the late 1970s that computed a purported ultimate limit on
areal density for ICs that was in fact less than the routine
densities of 5 years later.
[glossary]
[Reference(s) to this entry by made by: {videotex}]